The World According to Zandland - Issue #10
Iran is at Breaking Point - Here's What Might Come Next.
Iran’s Supreme Leader is dead.
That sentence alone would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Now it’s reality, and the consequences are already rippling across the region.
I’m British-Iranian. I’m also a journalist. And I’ve been looking at this moment through two very different lenses.
On a personal level, I won’t pretend I felt grief.
This was a regime that, only weeks ago, oversaw the killing of thousands of Iranians protesting for freedom and economic reform. For decades it imprisoned critics, crushed dissent, and built a system where basic freedoms carried real risk.
So the sense that now Iranians may be able to breathe freely and have a prospect of a life unshackled is exciting.
And regardless of what happens next, Iran has changed. Even if the Islamic Republic survives, it will not be the same structure it was.
But the journalist in me is cautious.
Because history is not kind to regime change delivered by foreign force.
Iraq. Afghanistan. Libya.
Those interventions began with certainty and ended in fragmentation, instability, and enormous human cost. Hundreds of thousands killed. Millions displaced. Political systems that remain fragile or broken.
It’s difficult to look at American and Israeli strikes and assume that this leads to a stable democracy.
That contradiction, hope and scepticism at the same time, is where I predict many Iranians are sitting.
For years, people inside Iran tried to push change themselves.
The Green Movement.
Women, Life, Freedom.
Mass protests that felt historic… and were crushed.
People were arrested, beaten, executed. The security apparatus held.
So when foreign powers strike at the very top of the regime, many welcome it, because internal revolt alone didn’t succeed.
But the idea that Iranians can now simply “rise up” misunderstands how power works inside the country. The regime is deeply embedded. There is no unified opposition waiting in the wings. And contingency plans for leadership assassinations have existed for years.
Within hours, positions were replaced. A three-man interim leadership council, the president, the head of the judiciary, and a senior cleric overseeing succession, assumed control. Their priority is not reform. It is survival. Projecting stability. Preventing unrest. Keeping the security forces aligned.
From contacts I’ve spoken to on the ground, checkpoints are widespread. Messages are being sent warning against gatherings. The state is moving quickly to prevent a tipping point.
The real question is not whether people are angry. The question is whether cracks appear inside the regime itself.
If members of the Basij, the regime’s volunteer militia used to suppress protests on the streets start refusing orders, that changes everything.
If figures inside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the powerful parallel military force that protects the regime, controls large parts of the economy, and oversees much of Iran’s regional military activity, begin to fracture or defect, that changes everything.
So far, that hasn’t happened.
Which brings us to the possible futures.
One scenario is restoration, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah, returning. He hasn’t lived in Iran for nearly five decades. His father ruled a one-party state backed by the SAVAK secret police. For some Iranians, that era represents stability. For others, repression.
Pahlavi speaks about democracy and referendums. But does he have the internal machinery? The loyalty of the security forces? A coherent political coalition inside Iran?
Those questions remain unanswered.
Another possibility is a democratic transition emerging organically from civil society.
It’s the most hopeful path. But democracy requires more than popular will. It requires control of institutions, security guarantees, bureaucratic continuity, and leadership capable of preventing fragmentation.
Right now, there is no organised structure visibly prepared to assume that role.
And then there are darker, more worrying, possibilities…
The regime survives, but harder, more militarised, more paranoid.
Or it collapses, leaving a vacuum in a country that is ethnically and politically complex. Persians, Kurds, Balochis, Azeris, Arabs. Secular populations. Religious loyalists. A vacuum in that environment does not stay empty for long.
There is also a pragmatic scenario: a “reformed” Islamic Republic. A more presentable figure negotiates concessions on nuclear and missile programmes. Foreign leaders claim success. The underlying power structure remains.
But after this level of violence, that will feel like betrayal to a lot of Iranians. Why bomb the country and cause global chaos for more of the same?
None of these paths are simple.
And this is unfolding during a broader regional escalation that already includes Ukraine, Gaza, and multiple proxy conflicts. The risk isn’t just about Iran’s future, it’s about how far this all spreads.
For Iranians in the diaspora, there is now hope. The idea of returning to Iran for the first time in years. Of living without fear of detention. Of reconnecting with family without the risk of being detained or else.
And at the same time, there is realism. Removing a ruler does not automatically produce stability. It produces uncertainty.
At Zandland, we are very interested in hearing your thoughts, and are speaking to people inside Iran living through it in real time.
If you believe in reporting that sits with complexity rather than slogans, you can subscribe to this newsletter. And if you have footage, information, or perspectives to share securely, contact us at:
contact@zand.land
This is not just an Iranian story.
It is a test of whether history is about to repeat itself… or finally break pattern.
And we are watching it unfold in real time.